A Wild Presidential Race: Watch the Internals

 My political polling mentors, Peter Hart and the late Bob Teeter, counseled after a big event, probably wait a couple cycles to get a good measure and unless right before the election, pay more attention to the internals than the horse race.

  Even Bob and Peter couldn't have anticipated the most extraordinary month in American politics: an attempted assassination of one Presidential candidate, the incumbent President of the other bowing out, the Vice President then rapidly clinching the nomination and the selection of two unexpected and diametrically different running mates. 

  With these seismic events, a contest Donald Trump clearly was favored to win now is basically even, both nationally, according to polling averages, and in the seven battleground states. 
A Toss-Up
Real Clear Politics 538
Harris: 47.6% 45.5%
Trump: 47.1% 43.4%

 Kamala Harris has had as good a three weeks as any candidate I ever remember.

  In the Hart-Teeter spirit, let's wait until the end of the month for a more reliable reading and focus on the internals. I spoke to six of the best pollsters, two Republicans, two Democrats and two independents to see what to look for.