Frequently someone asks, “Can you really trust the polls?” They are Democrats or anti-Trump Republicans who want a negative answer.
Sorry, but the major national polls are pretty much on the mark. With some variation, Donald Trump enjoys a small, but steady, lead of a point or two.
With events and campaigns, this can change. Two candidates held bigger leads at this time; Michael Dukakis in 1988 and President Jimmy Carter in 1980. The contest today is less fluid, and President Biden's ceiling is lower than winning candidates in those years.
My colleague, James Carville, gave an excellent polling tutorial on Substackthree weeks ago. (Link here) I want to add a few particulars to Professor Carville's wisdom.
