A safe prediction for Trump 2.0 in 2025: there'll be lots of chaos and bitter rancor.
Those are trademarks of the President-to-be in both success and failure.
Trump will be more confrontational, seeking revenge, than the first time, and likely he'll be more willing to bend not only rules but laws. Consider the contrast of major appointments: he nominated for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a Fox TV host and accused sexual predator; eight years ago Trump tapped retired Marine General Jim Mattis. Trump sycophant Kash Patel is the choice to lead the FBI, in contrast to incumbent Christopher Wray, a respected former prosecutor. On substance, surprisingly, he enters office in stronger shape on foreign policy than on domestic/economic issues. The main U.S. major adversaries, China and Iran, are weakened, the Syrian dictator was forced to flee. Trump may be able to force Ukraine's Zelensky to take a deal ending the war, rewarding Russia which invaded the country two years ago.
China has more problems than eight years ago. "China is weakened demographically and weakened economically with its outdated, state-centered model of manufacturing and export," ventures Roger Altman, a prominent Wall Street executive and leading Democratic economic adviser. Although China remains the world's other superpower, Trump may be in a stronger position to challenge on trade. However, Altman notes, Trump may turn out to be "unlucky" on the economy: "He's taking office at a moment of remarkable resilience and overall strength. There's only one way to go from here and it's not up." Two Trump centerpiece promises -- massive deportations of undocumented migrants and imposing huge tariffs on China, Mexico and other trading partners -- have political appeal but would exacerbate economic challenges. My guess is Trump's rhetoric is more of a bluff. There will be showcase deportations, prisoners yanked out of jails, gangs rounded up, targeting a few communities and businesses and tough guy bluster from deportation czar Tom Homan. But Trump will stop well short of deporting anywhere close to millions of migrants that could devastate sectors like restaurants, farming, lodging and construction. This may agitate Trump's anti-immigrant base. Trump has sided with Elon Musk to permit more high tech skilled engineer immigrants, rousing the fury of the MAGA right. And once tariffs start fueling inflation and inevitable retaliation Trump will look for face saving deals.
Despite controlling both houses of Congress Trump's radical agenda -- extending huge tax cuts that primarily benefit the affluent, slashing social spending on health care and child care, picking up on Project 2025's right wing social agenda, including abortion restrictions -- will face an uphill challenge. With only a two vote margin in the House, Republicans will be hard pressed on the debt ceiling and draconian budget cuts to meet the demands of the influential House right wingers; they already warned they'll move to unseat Speaker Mike Johnson unless he satisfies them.
One area Trump isn't likely to back down is going after political "enemies" like former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney and special prosecutor Jack Smith though any charges would be dubious. The media too is at the top of his enemies list. He already pressured Disney and ABC to capitulate on a defamation charge that Trump probably couldn't have won; he has filed suits, against CBS for the way it edited a Kamala Harris interview, and the Des Moines Register and its respected Iowa pollster Ann Selzer for a survey that showed Trump losing the state. The purpose is to intimidate.
The courts may serve as a limited guard rail to Trump's excesses. Pam Karlan, a Stanford law professor and former Supreme Court clerk and top Justice Department official, thinks courts will slap down Trump when he blatantly fails to follow the rules and the law. I don't think he could get away with ending constitutionally protected birthright citizenship for legal migrants. But this Republican Supreme Court, with its decision to give Trump immunity from many actions he takes as President cannot be counted on as a reliable check. Moreover, as Karlan notes, "the courts can't save us from evil." As always, there are critical uncertainties. Short-term, will all of Trump's controversial cabinet nominees be confirmed? One likely will be rejected; that's the way it usually works. I wish it would be Patel or Hegseth; more likely it'll be Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., the vaccine-denying nominee to head Health and Human Services or the Russian friendly Tulsi Gabbard tapped to be director of National Intelligence.
And how does Trump react to a foreign crisis? He loves to talk tough on economic threats but seems wary of actually using force. The most discussed hypothetical is what would Trump do if Xi Jinping decides the time is ripe to take over Taiwan. My guess: not much. The bottom line: look for an early legislative victory, a plethora of executive actions and, if he's lucky, avoiding an international crisis. By the middle of 2025, with his agenda stalled, a frustrated Trump will be lashing out, focusing on retribution.
I do not see in what way Trump's election has weakened China. Using tariffs as a weapon is a two way street and China owns a lot of US debt - a weak point for Uncle Sam.
China and Russia can only benefit from a weakening of NATO by trump who is still a "useful idiot" to Vlad "The Invader" Putin. Trump is a traitor to the US.
I do not see in what way Trump's election has weakened China. Using tariffs as a weapon is a two way street and China owns a lot of US debt - a weak point for Uncle Sam.
China and Russia can only benefit from a weakening of NATO by trump who is still a "useful idiot" to Vlad "The Invader" Putin. Trump is a traitor to the US.